Australia Rooftop Solar Installations Drop 32% in January After Four Months of Growth

In January 2026, Australia experienced a significant decline in rooftop solar installations, with small-scale technology certificate (STC) volumes falling by 32% compared to the previous month. This drop followed a four-month period of steady growth in the rooftop solar market, as reported by market analyst SunWiz. Despite the sharp decrease, SunWiz emphasized that this reduction aligns with typical seasonal patterns and should not be interpreted as a negative trend for the year ahead.

Installed rooftop solar capacity in December 2025 reached 224 megawatts (MW), a figure consistent with outcomes seen in recent years. This suggests that the market remains robust overall, despite the January slowdown. SunWiz also noted that average system sizes have stabilized, indicating a mature market where consumers are opting for standard-sized installations rather than significantly larger or smaller systems.

The seasonal fluctuation in rooftop solar installations is a common phenomenon in Australia, often influenced by factors such as weather conditions, consumer purchasing behavior, and government incentives. The January dip is therefore not unexpected and does not necessarily reflect a weakening demand for solar technology. Instead, it may represent a temporary pause following the surge in installations during the preceding months.

Looking ahead, SunWiz cautions against using the January data as a predictor for the entire year of 2026. The rooftop solar market in Australia has demonstrated resilience and consistent growth over time, supported by favorable policies and increasing consumer interest in renewable energy. The recent decline is more likely a short-term correction rather than a sign of long-term decline.

The implications of this report are important for stakeholders in the Australian solar industry, including manufacturers, installers, and policymakers. Understanding the seasonal nature of installation volumes can help in planning production, managing supply chains, and designing incentive programs that maintain steady growth throughout the year. It also highlights the importance of monitoring market data continuously to avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations.

In summary, while January 2026 saw a notable decrease in rooftop solar installations in Australia, this change fits within expected seasonal trends. The overall market remains healthy, and the outlook for rooftop solar in Australia continues to be positive as the country advances its renewable energy goals.